The State Secretariat for Economic Affairs (SECO) is forecasting economic growth in Switzerland of 1.1% in 2024 (September forecast: 1.2%), compared with 1.3% in 2023. This would mean significantly below-average growth (+1.8%) of the Swiss economy for two consecutive years.
As the global economy gradually recovers, economic growth in Switzerland should return to normal in 2025, at 1.7%. Risks in connection with the monetary environment remain a primary concern.
The subdued momentum in the eurozone in 2024 is likely to hold back the exposed areas of the Swiss export industry.
Declining capacity utilization and higher financing costs are expected to curb investment activity. Private consumer spending can still be expected to provide some support.
The average unemployment rate for 2024 is expected to rise to 2.3%, compared with 2.0% in 2023.
After an annual rate of 2.1% in 2023 (September forecast: 2.2%), inflation should come in at 1.9% in 2024 (unchanged forecast). A significantly lower inflation rate of 1.1% is not expected until 2025.
The economic risks are considerable. The geopolitical risks have increased with the armed conflict in the Middle East. An escalation of this conflict could be accompanied by a sharp rise in oil prices and, as a result, rising inflation rates.
In view of relatively high core inflation, there is still a risk that a tighter international monetary policy will be necessary.
Developments in Germany and China also pose risks for the international economy and thus for Swiss foreign trade.
German industry could slow down more significantly and weaken the exposed areas of the Swiss economy more than expected.
The Chinese economy could also cool down more than expected because of the crisis in the property sector, high levels of debt and subdued sentiment by businesses and households.