| Time | Country | Event | Period | Previous value | Forecast | Actual |
|---|
| 00:30 | Australia | Unemployment rate | November | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.9% |
| 00:30 | Australia | Changing the number of employed | November | 42.7 | 11 | 61.5 |
During today's Asian trading, the US dollar fell moderately, continuing yesterday's decline and reaching its lowest level since August 11, as the results of the December Fed meeting strengthened investors' confidence that the Fed may move to monetary policy easing in 2024.
The US Dollar Currency Index (DXY), which tracks the dynamics of the dollar against six currencies (euro, swiss franc, yen, canadian dollar, pound sterling and swedish krona) fell by 0.15% to 102.72. Yesterday, the index declined by 0.96% after the Fed left interest rates unchanged, and Central Bank Chairman Powell said interest rates have reached peak levels, with a discussion of cuts in borrowing costs coming "into view." The projections provided by the Fed also suggest the central bank will begin cutting rates next year, with the median forecast indicating rates will be lowered to 4.6% by the end of 2024. The median forecast points to rates in a range 4.50%-4.75%, hinting the Fed's plans to cut rates by 0,25% three times next year. The Fed's forecasts also suggest that consumer inflation will slow to 2.4% by the end of 2024, while GDP growth will slow to 1.4%. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets see a 72.3% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut at the Fed meeting in March 2024 and a 72.1% probability of a similar rate cut in May 2024.
The Australian dollar rose 0.75% against the US dollar, as the latest labor market data, reflecting a significant increase in employment in November, increased the likelihood that the RBA may continue to tighten monetary policy. The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) said that in November the number of employed increased by 61.5 thousand, accelerating compared to October (+42.7 thousand, revised from +55 thousand), and exceeding economists' forecasts (+11 thousand). The participation rate improved to 67.2% (a record high), beating expectations for 66.9% and up from 67.0% in October. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate rose by 0.1%, to 3.9%. The October figure was revised upward to 3.8% from 3.7%. Economists had expected unemployment to remain at 3.8%.
The New Zealand dollar rose 0.7% against the US dollar, despite disappointing New Zealand GDP data. According to the Statistics New Zealand report, the economy contracted by 0.3% in the 3rd quarter after growing by 0.5% in the 2nd quarter (revised from +0.9%). Economists had expected the economy to expand by 0.2%. In annual terms, GDP fell by 0.6% compared with 1.5% growth in the 2nd quarter (revised from +1.8%). Consensus estimates suggested a 0.5% increase.