| Time | Country | Event | Period | Previous value | Forecast | Actual |
|---|
| 07:00 | Germany | Gfk Consumer Confidence Survey | January | -27.6 | -27 | -25.1 |
| 07:00 | United Kingdom | HICP ex EFAT, Y/Y | November | 5.7% | 5.5% | 5.1% |
| 07:00 | United Kingdom | HICP, Y/Y | November | 4.6% | 4.4% | 3.9% |
| 07:00 | United Kingdom | HICP, m/m | November | 0% | 0.2% | -0.2% |
During today's Asian trading, the US dollar rose slightly against major currencies, while investors are waiting for important data on the US economy, which may strengthen bets on a “soft landing" of the American economy and easing of the Fed's monetary policy.
The US Dollar Currency Index (DXY), which tracks the dynamics of the dollar against six currencies (euro, swiss franc, yen, canadian dollar, pound sterling and swedish krona) rose by 0.07% to 102.23. As for the data, later this week will be released a report on durable goods orders, the personal consumption expenditures price index (the Fed's preferred measure of inflation) and the final estimate of GDP for the third quarter. Investors hope that this data will provide more clues about the outlook for the economy and the future of interest rates in the United States. Yesterday, Thomas Barkin, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, suggested that the Fed would cut interest rates if inflation continued to fall. Meanwhile, Atlanta Federal Reserve President Rafael Bostic reiterated that he expects two rate cuts in the second half of the next year, but added there was no "urgency" now. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets see a 69.6% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut at the Fed meeting in March 2024 and a 98.6% probability of a rate cut in May 2024.
The pound fell 0.6% against the US dollar on the back of weaker-than-expected UK inflation data, which strengthened market participants' confidence in easing the Bank of England's monetary policy next year. Markets are currently fully pricing in a 25 basis point rate cut in June 2024 and indicate a greater than 50% chance of a cut in May. The Office for National Statistics (ONS) said that in November consumer prices rose by 3.9% per year (the lowest value since September 2021) after increasing by 4.6% per year in October. Economists had expected inflation to slow to 4.4% per annum. Although inflation is at its lowest level since September 2021, it remains almost 2 times higher than the Bank of England's target level (2%). Meanwhile, core CPI - which excludes energy, food, alcohol and tobacco - rose by 5.1% per annum (the lowest rate since January 2022) after an increase of 5.7% per annum in October. Consensus estimates suggested an increase by 5.6% per annum.