The Conference Board announced on Thursday that its Leading Economic Index
(LEI) for the US decreased 0.5 per cent m-o-m in November to 103.0 (2016=100) following a downwardly revised 1.0 m-o-m fall (from -0.8 per cent m-o-m) in October.
Economists had forecast a decline of 0.4 per cent m-o-m.
The report also revealed the Conference Board Coincident Economic Index
(CEI) for the US rose
0.2 per cent m-o-m to 111.2 in November after a flat m-o-m performance in the previous month. Meanwhile, its Lagging
Economic Index (LAG) for the US increased 0.5 per cent m-o-m to 119.2, following an upwardly revised 0.3 per cent m-o-m advance
(from +0.1 per cent m-o-m) in October.
Commenting on the latest data, Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, Senior
Manager, Business Cycle Indicators at the Conference Board, noted that the US
LEI continued declining in November, with stock prices making virtually the
only positive contribution to the index in the month. “Despite the economy’s
ongoing resilience, as revealed by the US CEI, and December’s improvement in
consumer confidence, the US LEI suggests a downshift of economic activity ahead,”
she warned, adding that the Conference Board forecasts a short and shallow
recession in the first half of 2024."