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22.12.2023

UK economy unexpectedly contracted in the 3rd quarter

Data published by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) showed that GDP fell by 0.1% in the 3rd quarter, which was worse than economists' forecasts and preliminary estimates (0%). Meanwhile, economic growth in the 2nd quarter was also revised downwards - to 0% from +0.2%. Nominal GDP is estimated to have increased by 1.4% in the 3rd quarter, unrevised from the first estimate.

The ONS said that in the 3rd quarter, the services sector fell by 0.2% (revised from -0.1%). Overall, consumer-facing services fell by 1.0% (revised from -0.7%). The production sector grew by 0.1% (revised from 0%). Manufacturing output increased by an unrevised 0.1% with increases in 7 out of the 13 subsectors, with the largest positive contribution from the manufacture of transport equipment that has seen four consecutive quarters of positive growth. The construction output is revised up to a 0.4% increase (previously 0.1%).

The data also showed that real household expenditure fell by 0.5% (revised from -0.4%), and real government consumption expenditure increased by 0.8% (revised from -0.5%). Gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) is estimated to have fallen by 1.6% (revised from -2%).

In annual terms, GDP grew by 0.3%, while economists expected an increase of 0.6%. Meanwhile, GDP growth for the 2nd quarter was revised to 0.3% from 0.6%.

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