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29.12.2023

European session review: EUR trades mixed, following flash CPI figures from Spain

TimeCountryEventPeriodPrevious valueForecastActual
08:00SwitzerlandKOF Leading IndicatorDecember97.296.997.8


EUR traded mixed against its global peers in the European session on Friday as investors digested the flash consumer price index (CPI) figures for December from Spain, the Eurozone’s fourth-largest economy. 

The single European currency rose versus GBP, JPY, AUD and CAD but fell versus USD and CHF.

The preliminary CPI figures revealed that the annual inflation rate in Spain eased from 3.2% in November to 3.1% in December, while the core inflation rate moderated from 4.5% in November to 3.8%, the lowest level since March 2022. Economists had forecast the headline measure to increase to 3.4%. 

However, Spain’s annual headline inflation, as measured by HICP - the gauge used by the ECB to monitor price stability - held steady at 3.3% this month, surprising economists who had predicted 3.6%.

The preliminary CPI figures for the euro area, as a whole, will be released next Friday. They will be preceded by Thursday’s releases of flash inflation data for Germany and France.

Economists expect the euro area's headline annual inflation rate to accelerate to 3.0% from 2.4% in November, and the core annual inflation rate moderated to 3.4% from 3.6%.

Investors believe cooler-than-expected inflation data may encourage the European Central Bank’s (ECB) policymakers to stop arguing against bets on imminent interest-rate cuts.

Following the Spanish inflation report, markets continued to price in around 170 basis points of interest rate cuts by the ECB in 2024, Bloomberg reports.


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