| Time | Country | Event | Period | Previous value | Forecast | Actual |
|---|
| 00:30 | Australia | Retail Sales, M/M | November | -0.4% | 1.2% | 2.0% |
| 00:30 | Australia | Building Permits, m/m | November | 7.2% | -2% | 1.6% |
| 07:00 | Germany | Industrial Production s.a. (MoM) | November | -0.3% | 0.2% | -0.7% |
During today's Asian trading, the US dollar rose against major currencies after yesterday's fall, which was caused by strengthening expectations of easing the Fed's monetary policy.
The US Dollar Currency Index (DXY), which tracks the dynamics of the dollar against six currencies (euro, swiss franc, yen, canadian dollar, pound sterling and swedish krona) rose by 0.12% to 102.33. Yesterday, the index fell by 0.23%, partly due to the report of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, which showed that U.S. consumer inflation expectations for the year ahead fell to 3.0 per cent in December 2023 from 3.4 per cent in November. This was the lowest reading since January 2021 (3.0 per cent). The three-year-ahead inflation expectations decreased to 2.6 per cent in December from 3.0 per cent in November, and the five-year-ahead inflation expectations declined to 2.5 per cent from 2.7 per cent in the previous month. Now investors are preparing for the release of December US CPI data (on Thursday), which will probably help clarify the question of how much the Fed can lower interest rates this year. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets see a 57.3% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut at the Fed meeting in March 2024 and a 92.4% probability of a rate cut in May 2024, with almost 140 basis points of cuts priced in for this year.
The Australian dollar fell by 0.3% against the US dollar, despite positive Australian data. The Australian Bureau of Statistics said retail sales rose by 2% mom in November, to A$36,511.8 million. That beat forecasts for a gain of 1.2% following the downwardly revised 0.4% drop in October (originally -0.2%). This was the strongest pace in retail trade since November 2021, boosted by Black Friday events. On a yearly basis, sales rose 2.2%.
The Japanese yen rose 0.1% against the US dollar as data showed that core inflation in Tokyo slowed again in December (to 2.1% per annum from 2.3% per annum) taking some pressure off the Bank of Japan to rush into exiting ultra-loose monetary policy.