| Time | Country | Event | Period | Previous value | Forecast | Actual |
|---|
| 07:00 | Germany | Industrial Production s.a. (MoM) | December | -0.2% | -0.4% | -1.6% |
During today's Asian trading, the US dollar fell slightly against major currencies, continuing yesterday's decline and retreating from its highest level since mid-December.
The US Dollar Currency Index (DXY), which tracks the dynamics of the dollar against six currencies (euro, swiss franc, yen, canadian dollar, pound sterling and swedish krona) fell by 0.15% to 104.04. Experts said that financial markets are now in the process of reassessing expectations regarding Fed policy, and if positive economic data, especially on inflation, persist, the likelihood of an earlier rate cut may increase, potentially further weakening the US currency. Therefore, investors will focus their attention on the January CPI report, which will be published next Tuesday. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets see a 21.5% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut at the Fed meeting in March and a 67.1% probability of a rate cut in May, with 115 basis points of cuts priced in for this year.
The euro rose by 0.15% against the US dollar amid partial profit-taking after the recent rally of the US currency, driven by strong data on the US labor market and hawkish statements by Fed Chairman Powell. The growth of EUR/USD was also driven by a decrease in the yield of US Treasury bonds. Meanwhile, data published by the Federal Statistical Office (Destatis) showed that industrial production fell by 1.6% in December, recording the seventh monthly decline in a row and the steepest drop since March 2023. The November decline was revised to -0.2% from -0.7%. Economists had expected a decline of 0.4%. In annual terms, industrial production fell by 3.0% in December, slowing compared to November (-4.3%). Meanwhile, over the last three months (through December), industrial production decreased by 1.8% compared to the previous three-month period.