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19.03.2024

European session review: AUD weakens in response to a change in RBA’s rhetoric

TimeCountryEventPeriodPrevious valueForecastActual
07:00SwitzerlandTrade BalanceFebruary2.72.22.2
10:00EurozoneZEW Economic SentimentMarch25.025.433.5
10:00GermanyZEW Survey - Economic SentimentMarch19.920.631.7


AUD declined against most of its major rivals in the European session on Tuesday as investors responded to a change in the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) language on the policy stance.

The Australian central bank left its key rate at 4.35% for the third straight meeting on Tuesday. The step was widely anticipated by markets. However, the RBA dropped a warning that further increases in interest rates are possible, which had appeared in its previous policy statements.

Commenting on the latest change in the RBA’s rhetoric, its governor Michele Bullock noted that it reflects the policymakers’ strong belief that inflation is returning to the target range of 2-3% rather than their confidence that further interest rate hikes can be ruled out. She also emphasised that the RBA’s decisions depend on data and the central bank will only begin cutting rates once it’s confident that inflation is moving sustainably towards the target.

After the latest statements, markets are now seeing the RBA to keep its cash rate on hold until the end of September when it will be lowered to 4.1%.

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