| Time | Country | Event | Period | Previous value | Forecast | Actual |
|---|
| 02:00 | China | Retail Sales y/y | March | 5.5% | 4.5% | 3.1% |
| 02:00 | China | Industrial Production y/y | March | 7% | 5.4% | 4.5% |
| 02:00 | China | GDP y/y | Quarter I | 5.2% | 5% | 5.3% |
| 06:00 | United Kingdom | Average Earnings, 3m/y | February | 5.6% | 5.5% | 5.6% |
| 06:00 | United Kingdom | ILO Unemployment Rate | February | 3.9% | 4.0% | 4.2% |
| 06:00 | United Kingdom | Claimant count | March | 4.1 | 17.2 | 10.9 |
During today's Asian trading, the US dollar rose moderately against major currencies, reaching its highest level since November 2, 2023, as recent US data further reduced the likelihood of easing the Fed's monetary policy.
The US Dollar Currency Index (DXY), which tracks the dynamics of the dollar against six currencies (euro, swiss franc, yen, canadian dollar, pound sterling and swedish krona) rose by 0.19% to 106.41. Yesterday, the index rose by 0.23%, as data showed that retail sales in the United States rose by 0.7% in March after an increase of 0.9% in February (revised from +0.6%). Economists had expected an increase of 0.3%. The data reinforced the view that interest rates in the United States should not be expected to decrease in the near future. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets see a 21.0% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut at the Fed meeting in June, and a 46.3% probability of a rate cut in July (compared to 75.0% a week earlier). In addition, markets now expect only two rate cuts by the end of 2024, whereas at the beginning of the year they predicted six rate cuts. In the coming days, market participants will pay close attention to the statements of a number of Fed representatives. These comments are expected to be in tune with recent statements by their many colleagues, who stressed the need to make more progress in fighting inflation before easing policy.
The Chinese yuan consolidated against the US dollar, despite favorable data on China's GDP. The National Bureau of Statistics said that in the 4th quarter, GDP grew by 5.3% per annum, exceeding expectations for an increase of 4.8% and up from 5.2% in the 3rd quarter. On a seasonally adjusted quarterly basis, GDP was up 1.6%, accelerating from 1.0% in the three months prior. The data also showed that industrial production rose 4.5% per annum in March, shy of forecasts for a gain of 5.4% and down from 7% in February. Retail sales were up 3.1% per annum, missing expectations for 5.1% and down from 5.5% in February.
The yen fell by 0.15% against the US dollar, again updating the 34-year low. Overall, traders remain wary in anticipation of interventions by the Japanese authorities to buy the yen. On Tuesday, Japanese Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki said he was closely monitoring currency fluctuations and would take "thorough retaliatory measures as necessary."