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13.11.2024

Oil prices rose moderately, as tightness in the physical market offset bearish sentiment on demand

The price of oil futures increased by about 0.8%, but remained near a 2-week low, while market participants continued to evaluate the latest forecasts of OPEC, which lowered the forecast for global oil demand growth for the current and next years. 

OPEC said yesterday that global oil demand will grow by 1.82 million barrels per day in 2024 (-0.11 million barrels compared to the previous forecast), mainly due to China's weakness. Meanwhile, the forecast for global oil demand growth for 2025 was reduced by 0.1 million barrels to 1.54 million barrels per day. Later today, the International Energy Agency will publish its forecast.

Signs of near-term supply tightness provided some support to prices, but concerns about oil demand in China (the world's largest oil importer) held back further growth.

Experts said that oil prices are likely to consolidate near current levels, as the lack of more direct fiscal stimulus from China casts a shadow on the prospects for oil demand, combined with the prospects for increased oil production in the United States and the looming OPEC+ plans to increase production.

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