| Time | Country | Event | Period | Previous value | Forecast | Actual |
|---|
| 10:00 | Eurozone | Trade balance unadjusted | September | 4.1 | 7.9 | 12.5 |
GBP traded flat and mixed against other major currencies in the European session on Monday as investors shifted their focus to the UK October consumer price index (CPI) data due later this week.
The crucial UK CPI figures are to be released on Wednesday. Economists’ forecasts suggest the data will show a 2.2% YoY gain in the headline inflation for October after a 1.7% YoY increase in September. Meanwhile, the core CPI is expected to post a 3.2% advance YoY, unchanged compared to the previous month.
If the data came cooler than expected this could prompt markets to increase bets on another cut in the Bank of England benchmark rate in December.
Friday’s report, which showed Britain’s economy slowed to 0.1% in the third quarter of 2024, down sharply from 0.5% in the second quarter, reinforced expectations of additional rate reduction by the BoE next month.
According to Reuters, markets now see a roughly 80% chance of the December move and predict the Bank Rate, which now stands at 4.75%, to decrease by around 65 basis points to just above 4.00% by the end of 2025.