| Time | Country | Event | Period | Previous value | Forecast | Actual |
|---|
| 00:30 | Australia | RBA Meeting's Minutes | | | | |
During today's Asian trading, the US dollar rose slightly against major currencies after yesterday recorded its first drop in the last 7 trading sessions amid partial profit-taking and correction of positions by investors ahead of speeches by Fed policymakers.
The US Dollar Currency Index (DXY), which tracks the dynamics of the dollar against six currencies (euro, swiss franc, yen, canadian dollar, pound sterling and swedish krona) rose by 0.06% to 106.34. Since the beginning of the month, the index has added 2.3%, helped by weakening expectations regarding the extent of Fed rate cuts and the view that Donald Trump's policies on tariffs, immigration cuts, and debt-funded tax cuts will increase inflationary pressures in the United States. Last week, US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell signaled a patient stance on lowering interest rates, given the strength of the US economy. Currently, market participants estimate a rate cut of only 77 basis points by late 2025, compared with more than 100 a few weeks ago. However, these expectations may change, as at least seven Fed's officials are due to speak this week. Experts also said that we should expect less dovish rhetoric from policymakers in December, as the Fed prepares the ground for a rate hold in January. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets see a 58.4% probability of a 0.25% rate cut in December (compared to 61.9% yesterday).
The yen rose by 0.3% against the US dollar after falling 0.2% yesterday and breaking the level of 155 yen per dollar amid statements by Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda, who did not give any hints about the possibility of a rate hike in December. Meanwhile, Japanese Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato reiterated today that the government will continue to respond adequately to excessive foreign exchange movements.
The Australian dollar rose by 0.1% against the US dollar, as the minutes of the last RBA meeting indicated that interest rates are unlikely to be lowered in the near future, and may even have to be raised in some scenarios. Markets have not fully priced a RBA cut until May next year, with a move in February at just a 38% probability.