| Time | Country | Event | Period | Previous value | Forecast | Actual |
|---|
| 00:30 | Australia | CPI, y/y | October | 2.1% | 2.3% | 2.1% |
| 01:00 | New Zealand | RBNZ Interest Rate Decision | | 4.75% | 4.25% | 4.25% |
During today's Asian trading, the US dollar declined against major currencies amid partial profit-taking after the recent rally and correction of positions by investors ahead of the publication of US inflation data, which may affect the prospects for easing the Fed's monetary policy.
The US Dollar Currency Index (DXY), which tracks the dynamics of the dollar against six currencies (euro, swiss franc, yen, canadian dollar, pound sterling and swedish krona) fell by 0.42% to 106.55. Yesterday, the index rose by 0.18% amid Donald Trump's announcement that he would impose high tariffs on Canada, Mexico and China, the three largest trading partners of the United States. Today, the focus will be on personal income and expenditure data for October, as well as the core personal consumption expenditure (PCE) price index (the Fed's preferred inflation indicator). Economists expect total spending to have increased by 0.4% last month. Although household spending sources have changed, their purchasing power remains unchanged. In particular, income has again become a major factor. Income growth is slowing down, but it remains fairly stable - despite the moderation that is observed in the labor market - and continues to support spending. According to forecasts, personal income increased by 0.3% in October. Inflation is slowing down, but high prices are still a problem for households. Recently published CPI data also show that the last stage of inflation returning to the target level will be slower. Economists predict that the PCE price index rose 0.2% in October, which will accelerate the annual rate to 2.3% from 2.1% in September. Meanwhile, the core PCE price index is projected to have increased by 0.3% compared to September and by 2.8% per annum. In general, given the indicators of economic growth and the dynamics of inflation, the Fed is likely to take a cautious approach to further rate cuts next year.
The New Zealand dollar rose 1.05% against the US dollar on the back of the results of the meeting of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, which lowered interest rates by 0.50% to 4.25%, noting that inflation moved close to the midpoint of the target range and economic output remains below its potential. "If economic conditions continue to evolve as projected, the central bank expects to be able to lower rates further early next year," the RBNZ said. Policymakers expect economic growth to recover next year, as lower interest rates boost investment and other spending. However, employment growth is forecast to remain weak until mid-2025.
The yen rose by 1% against the US dollar, lifted by safe-haven bids, growing bets for a December rate hike in Japan, and position adjustments. Investors are closing the Trump trades - heading into Thanksgiving - and that includes a stronger dollar.