| Time | Country | Event | Period | Previous value | Forecast | Actual |
|---|
| 08:00 | Switzerland | SECO Consumer Climate | November | -37 | -35 | -37 |
USD declined against most of its major counterparts in the European session on Monday as investors waited for key U.S. inflation figures for November later this week, which will determine the Federal Reserve’s December interest rate decision.
The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), measuring the U.S. currency's value relative to a basket of foreign currencies, fell 0.17% from the previous close to 105.88.
Investors will receive the crucial consumer price index (CPI) data for November on Wednesday, and the producer price index (PPI) report will follow on Thursday.
The former is expected to show that headline CPI rose 2.7% YoY last month, following a 2.6% YoY advance in October. The core CPI, which strips out food and energy prices, is predicted to demonstrate a 3.3% YoY increase, the same pace as in the previous two months.
Friday’s November employment report, featuring a stronger-than-expected 227,000 increase in nonfarm payrolls, a larger-than-expected 0.4% gain in average hourly earnings, and a rise in the unemployment rate to 4.2% from 4.1%, corroborated the notion that the U.S. economy is on track for a soft landing and that the Fed will deliver another rate decrease at its December 17-18 meeting.
According to CME FedWatch, markets now see an 87.1% probability of a 25-basis points rate cut next week, which would bring its interest rates to 4.25-4.50%. A week ago, they saw a 61.6% chance of the move.
If inflation data match expectations or come in cooler than anticipated, this will cement the case for the quarter-point rate reduction by the U.S. central bank at its final meeting of 2024.