| Time | Country | Event | Period | Previous value | Forecast | Actual |
|---|
| 07:00 | United Kingdom | Average Earnings, 3m/y | October | 4.3% | 4.6% | 5.2% |
| 07:00 | United Kingdom | Average earnings ex bonuses, 3 m/y | October | 4.9% | 5% | 5.2% |
| 07:00 | United Kingdom | Claimant count | November | -10.9 | 28.2 | 0.3 |
| 07:00 | United Kingdom | ILO Unemployment Rate | October | 4.3% | 4.3% | 4.3% |
| 09:00 | Germany | IFO - Current Assessment | December | 84.3 | 84 | 85.1 |
| 09:00 | Germany | IFO - Expectations | December | 87.0 | 87.5 | 84.4 |
| 09:00 | Germany | IFO - Business Climate | December | 85.6 | 85.6 | 84.7 |
| 10:00 | Germany | ZEW Survey - Economic Sentiment | December | 7.4 | 6.4 | 15.7 |
| 10:00 | Eurozone | ZEW Economic Sentiment | December | 12.5 | 12.2 | 17.0 |
GBP appreciated against most of the other major currencies in the European session on Tuesday as investors responded to the UK’s labour market data, which revealed a stronger-than-expected wage increase.
The pound rose versus most of its major counterparts but for JPY.
The Office for National Statistics (ONS) reported that regular pay in Britain rose 5.2% YoY in the three months to October, following an upwardly revised 4.9% YoY gain in the previous three-month period. This marked the first rebound in wage growth since August 2023 and represented the fastest annual increase in average earnings, excluding bonuses since June. Economists had predicted a 5.0% advance.
The ONS’s data also showed that the number of people employed in the UK rose by 173,000 in August through October, compared to an upwardly revised 253,000 advance in July through September and economists’ forecast of a 12,000 reduction. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate remained unchanged at 4.3%, matching expectations.
A stronger-than-anticipated increase in wages prompted markets to further trim their bets on interest rate cuts by the Bank of England next year. According to Bloomberg, they are now pricing in only 60 points of rate decreases by the end of 2025. This implies they see two cuts of 25 basis points and less than a 50% probability of another.