International Energy Agency (IEA): Global oil demand rose seasonally in the 4th quarter

In the 4th quarter, global oil demand recorded annual growth of 1.5 mb/d – the strongest level since 4Q23 and 260 kb/d higher than our previous forecast.

Lower fuel prices, colder weather across the Northern Hemisphere and abundant petrochemical feedstocks all combined to boost consumption.

Annual growth is now assessed at 940 kb/d for 2024, accelerating to 1.05 mb/d in 2025 as the economic outlook improves marginally.

World oil supply inched higher by 20 kb/d m-o-m to 103.5 mb/d in December, up 390 kb/d y-o-y

Global oil supply is projected to rise by 1.8 mb/d in 2025 to 104.7 mb/d, compared with an increase of 660 kb/d in 2024.

Non-OPEC+ production is set to rise by 1.5 mb/d in both 2024 and 2025, to 53.1 mb/d and 54.6 mb/d, respectively.

Refinery crude runs jumped 1.2 mb/d m-o-m to a five-year high of 84.3 mb/d in December, as scheduled autumn maintenance was completed and margins improved.

Refinery runs were up by 930 kb/d y-o-y, led by the United States, the Middle East and Africa.

Runs are forecast to rise by 660 kb/d in 2025, following growth of 510 kb/d in 2024, led by stronger non-OECD throughputs

Global observed oil inventories increased by 12.2 mb to 7 655 mb in November, as higher crude oil stocks on land and on water more than offset draws in oil products.

OECD industry stocks drew 20.1 mb to 2 749.2 mb, 118.3 mb below their five-year average and the lowest level since August 2022.

According to preliminary data, global inventories extended the gains in December, led mainly by a surge in oil products on water.