The latest Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) showed that respondents’ expectations for headline inflation, as measured by the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), revised up slightly for 2025-26 but unchanged for 2027 and the long term. Real GDP growth expectations revised down for 2025 and 2026 but up for 2027. The survey was conducted between 1 and 4 April 2025 and 54 responses were received.
Headline HICP inflation expectations were 2.2% for 2025 and 2.0% for 2026 and 2027.
Expectations were revised up by 0.1% for 2025 and 2026 compared with the previous survey (conducted in the first quarter of 2025) but were unchanged for 2027.
Expectations for core HICP inflation, which excludes energy and food, were revised up slightly across all horizons.
Longer-term expectations for headline inflation were unchanged at 2.0%, while those for core HICP inflation were revised up slightly to 2.0%.
Respondents expected real GDP growth of 0.9% in 2025, 1.2% in 2026 and 1.4% in 2027.
Expectations were revised down by 0.1% for 2025-26 but up by 0.1% for 2027.
Longer-term growth expectations remained unchanged at 1.3%.
The expected trajectory of the unemployment rate was revised slightly downwards.
The unemployment rate is expected to average 6.3% from 2025 to 2027, and then to fall to 6.2% in the longer term.